Key Takeaways
- 30-year fixed mortgage rates: 6.16% (Freddie Mac average as of January 8, 2026)
- 15-year fixed mortgage rates: 5.46% (down from 7% range a year ago)
- Rates are holding near 3-year lows after Fed rate cuts in late 2025
- Purchase mortgage rates are lower than refinance rates (5.99% vs. 6.67% for 30-year)
- Next Fed meeting: January 28 – only 18% chance of rate cut, but rates could still move
- Best opportunities: Buyers with 740+ credit scores shopping multiple lenders
Table of Contents
- Current Mortgage Rates Today
- What Happened This Week
- Compare Today’s Best Rates
- Rates by Loan Type
- What’s Driving Rates Right Now
- What to Expect Next Week
- Should You Lock Your Rate Now?
- How to Qualify for the Best Rates
- Frequently Asked Questions
Current Mortgage Rates Today: January 9, 2026
Mortgage rates are holding steady near three-year lows as we move into the second week of 2026. Here’s where rates stand right now based on the latest data from major sources:
According to Freddie Mac (Week Ending January 8, 2026)
30-year fixed-rate mortgage: 6.16% (up 0.01% from last week’s 6.15%)
15-year fixed-rate mortgage: 5.46% (up 0.02% from last week’s 5.44%)
Year-over-year comparison: Down from 6.93% a year ago
According to Zillow (Daily Averages as of January 8, 2026)
30-year fixed purchase rate: 5.99%
15-year fixed purchase rate: 5.25%
30-year fixed refinance rate: 6.75%
15-year fixed refinance rate: 5.72%
5/1 ARM: 5.48%
The spread between purchase and refinance rates remains notable – refinancing typically comes with rates that are 0.5-0.75% higher than purchase mortgages. This gap reflects the higher processing costs and risk assessments lenders apply to refinance applications.
What These Numbers Mean for You
These are national averages, which means actual rates vary based on your credit score, down payment, loan amount, and location. Borrowers with excellent credit (760+) and substantial down payments (20%+) routinely secure rates 0.25-0.5% below these averages.
For example, on a $400,000 loan, the difference between 6.16% and 5.90% saves you $60 per month ($720 annually) and $21,600 over 30 years. This is why shopping multiple lenders matters.
What Happened This Week
Mortgage rates nudged slightly higher this week but remain in the favorable 6.0-6.2% range that has characterized early 2026. The minimal movement reflects a wait-and-see approach from lenders ahead of upcoming economic data releases.
Key Developments
Fed pause continues: With the next Federal Reserve meeting set for January 28, markets are pricing in just an 18% chance of a rate cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The Fed delivered three consecutive quarter-point cuts in late 2025 but has signaled a more cautious approach for 2026.
Economic data this week: Initial jobless claims rose to 208,000 for the week ending January 3, up from 200,000 the prior week, according to the Department of Labor. The trade deficit narrowed substantially to $29.4 billion in October from $48.1 billion in September. Productivity increased 4.9% in Q3 2025, signaling economic strength that keeps inflation concerns alive.
Purchase applications up 20% year-over-year: According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage purchase applications are up over 20% compared to January 2025 when rates were hovering near 7%. The combination of lower rates and solid economic growth is bringing buyers back to the market.
Refinancing boom continues: Refinance applications now account for more than half of all mortgage activity – a dramatic shift from 2024 when refinancing was near historic lows due to high rates.
Bottom Line
Rates moved fractionally higher this week (just 1-2 basis points), but the overall trajectory since late 2025 remains favorable. We’re seeing stability rather than volatility, which is good news for borrowers trying to time their applications.
Compare Today’s Best Rates from Top Lenders
The best way to secure a low mortgage rate is to compare offers from multiple lenders. Rates can vary by 0.5% or more for the same borrower depending on the lender, which translates to thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Below, you can compare current rates from top lenders based on your specific loan scenario:
Use our mortgage calculator to see your exact monthly payment at different interest rates, then compare live rates below.
Why Rates Vary Between Lenders
Several factors cause rate variations:
Lender overhead costs: Online lenders typically have lower operating costs than traditional banks, allowing them to offer rates 0.125-0.25% lower.
Portfolio vs. selling loans: Some lenders keep loans in their portfolio while others sell them to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Portfolio lenders have more flexibility on rates and terms.
Volume incentives: Lenders running promotional campaigns to increase market share may offer temporarily lower rates to attract borrowers.
Loan type specialization: Some lenders specialize in VA loans, others in jumbo loans. Specialists often offer better rates in their niche.
Rate lock periods: A 30-day rate lock typically comes with a better rate than a 60-day lock because there’s less rate risk for the lender.
According to Freddie Mac research, borrowers who shop rates with at least five lenders save an average of $3,000 over the life of their loan compared to those who only get one quote.
Mortgage Rates by Loan Type
Different loan types come with different rate structures. Here’s what you need to know about each option:
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
Current average: 6.16% (Freddie Mac) / 5.99% (Zillow purchase) / 6.75% (Zillow refinance)
Best for: Borrowers who want predictable payments and plan to stay in their home long-term.
Pros: Payment never changes over 30 years, provides maximum payment stability, easiest to qualify for due to lower monthly payment.
Cons: Pay significantly more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter terms, build equity slowly in early years.
Example payment: $400,000 loan at 6.16% = $2,433/month (principal and interest only)
15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
Current average: 5.46% (Freddie Mac) / 5.25% (Zillow purchase) / 5.72% (Zillow refinance)
Best for: Borrowers who can afford higher monthly payments and want to save on interest while building equity faster.
Pros: Interest rate typically 0.5-0.75% lower than 30-year, pay off loan in half the time, save hundreds of thousands in interest.
Cons: Monthly payment is significantly higher (often 40-50% more), less flexibility in monthly budget, harder to qualify for.
Example payment: $400,000 loan at 5.46% = $3,245/month (principal and interest only) – that’s $812/month more than the 30-year option, but you save $260,000 in interest over the life of the loan.
5/1 Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)
Current average: 5.48%
Best for: Borrowers who plan to move or refinance within 5-7 years, or those who expect their income to increase significantly.
How it works: Rate is fixed for first 5 years, then adjusts annually based on market conditions. Rate adjustments are typically capped at 2% per adjustment and 5% over the life of the loan.
Pros: Lower initial rate saves money in first 5 years, good for buyers who know they’ll move or refinance before adjustment period.
Cons: Payment uncertainty after year 5, rates could increase significantly if market rates rise, refinancing isn’t guaranteed.
Example savings: On a $400,000 loan, 5.48% ARM payment is $2,272/month vs. $2,433 for 30-year fixed – you save $161/month for first 5 years ($9,660 total).
FHA Loans
Current average: Typically 0.25-0.5% lower than conventional loans
Best for: First-time buyers with limited down payment (as low as 3.5%) and credit scores down to 580.
Important note: FHA loans require mortgage insurance for the life of the loan if you put down less than 10%. This adds 0.55-0.85% to your effective rate.
Who qualifies: Credit score 580+, debt-to-income ratio up to 43%, down payment as low as 3.5%.
VA Loans
Current average: Typically 0.25-0.5% lower than conventional loans
Best for: Active military, veterans, and eligible surviving spouses.
Major advantage: No down payment required, no mortgage insurance regardless of down payment, more lenient credit requirements.
Who qualifies: Must have Certificate of Eligibility from VA, meet service requirements.
Jumbo Loans
Current average: 6.25-6.75% (varies widely by lender)
Best for: Buyers purchasing high-value homes above conforming loan limits ($766,550 in most areas, higher in expensive markets).
Requirements: Typically need 20% down, credit score 700+, significant cash reserves (6-12 months payments), debt-to-income ratio below 43%.
What’s Driving Mortgage Rates Right Now
Understanding what moves mortgage rates helps you make smarter timing decisions. Here are the key factors influencing rates in January 2026:
1. The Federal Reserve’s Cautious Stance
The Fed delivered three quarter-point rate cuts in late 2025 (September, October, and December), bringing the federal funds rate down from its peak. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled a more cautious approach for 2026, with projections showing only 1-2 additional cuts this year.
While the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, its policies heavily influence them through the 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates track closely.
2. The 10-Year Treasury Yield
Mortgage rates are most closely correlated with the 10-year Treasury yield. As of early January 2026, the 10-year Treasury is trading around 4.14-4.16%, down from highs above 5% in late 2023.
Why this matters: Mortgage lenders use the 10-year Treasury as a benchmark for pricing mortgage-backed securities. When Treasury yields drop, funding costs for lenders decrease, and they pass some of those savings to borrowers through lower mortgage rates.
3. Inflation Progress But Lingering Concerns
Inflation has cooled significantly from 2023’s peaks. The Consumer Price Index dropped to around 2.5% by late 2025, closer to the Fed’s 2% target. However, “sticky” services inflation (healthcare, housing, education) remains elevated, keeping the Fed cautious about cutting rates too aggressively.
If inflation ticks back up, expect mortgage rates to rise as the Fed signals fewer future rate cuts. If inflation continues trending down, rates could drop below 6%.
4. Strong Labor Market
The U.S. economy added jobs consistently throughout 2025, keeping unemployment low around 3.5-4%. While good for workers, a strong labor market can keep upward pressure on wages and inflation, which limits how much rates can drop.
According to recent data, productivity rose 4.9% in Q3 2025, showing the economy remains robust. This strength reduces urgency for the Fed to cut rates aggressively.
5. Housing Market Momentum
With rates down significantly from 2023’s 7-8% range, buyer demand has increased. Purchase applications are up 20% year-over-year, and home prices have stabilized or increased slightly in most markets.
Increased demand can put upward pressure on rates as lenders have less incentive to compete aggressively on pricing when applications are flowing steadily.
6. Government Debt and Deficits
Some economists worry that continued large federal budget deficits (projected at $2 trillion annually by 2028) could push Treasury yields higher, creating a ceiling on how low mortgage rates can go. Higher government borrowing competes with mortgages for investor dollars, potentially keeping rates elevated.
What to Expect Next Week (January 13-17, 2026)
Rates will likely hold steady or move slightly this coming week unless economic data surprises significantly. Here’s what to watch:
Key Economic Reports Coming
January 13: Producer Price Index (PPI) – Measures wholesale inflation. If higher than expected, could push rates up slightly.
January 14: Consumer Price Index (CPI) – The big inflation report. If inflation shows unexpected increase, rates will likely rise. If inflation continues cooling, rates could drop.
January 16: Retail sales data – Shows consumer spending strength. Strong retail sales = strong economy = less pressure on Fed to cut rates.
January 17: Housing starts and building permits – Strong new construction data could ease home price pressure but also signals economic strength.
Expert Predictions for Short Term
According to mortgage market analysts, expect rates to remain in the 6.0-6.3% range through at least the Fed’s January 28 meeting. The consensus view from major forecasters:
Fannie Mae: Projects rates averaging 6.0-6.2% in Q1 2026
Mortgage Bankers Association: Expects 6.0-6.5% range through March
Bankrate analyst Ted Rossman: “The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate should bounce around 6% — sometimes a little lower, sometimes a little higher — throughout much of 2026.”
Wild Card: Fed Communications
Even without a rate cut at the January 28 meeting, Fed Chair Powell’s press conference could move markets if he signals more optimism about cutting rates later in 2026. Lenders often price in anticipated Fed moves before they happen.
Should You Lock Your Rate Now or Wait?
The decision to lock your rate depends on your timeline and risk tolerance. Here’s how to think about it:
Lock Your Rate Now If:
You’re closing within 30-45 days. Rate locks typically last 30-60 days. If you’re that close to closing, locking provides certainty and protects you from any unexpected rate increases.
You’re satisfied with current rates. At 6.0-6.2%, rates are the lowest they’ve been in three years. If this fits your budget and monthly payment goals, lock it in.
You have less-than-perfect credit. If your credit score is below 740, you’re not getting the absolute best rates anyway. The difference between 6.5% now and 6.3% later won’t be as meaningful for you, so lock in certainty.
Inflation data has been running hot. If upcoming CPI or PPI reports show inflation accelerating, rates will likely increase. Locking before bad inflation data protects you.
You’re risk-averse. The peace of mind knowing exactly what your rate and payment will be is worth something. If rate uncertainty is causing you stress, lock and move forward.
Consider Waiting (Floating) If:
You’re 60+ days from closing. Most rate locks expire after 60 days. If you’re further out, you have time to watch the market. You can always lock later once you’re within 45 days of closing.
Economic data suggests rates could drop. If inflation continues cooling and economic growth slows, rates could drift toward 5.75-5.90% by spring 2026. Some forecasters see this possibility.
The Fed meeting is approaching. With the Fed meeting on January 28, waiting until after that meeting gives you clarity on Fed policy direction for the next several months.
Your lender offers a float-down option. Some lenders allow you to lock your rate but then “float down” to a lower rate if rates drop before closing. This gives you downside protection with upside potential, though it typically costs an extra fee.
You’re shopping multiple lenders. If you’re still comparing offers, don’t lock until you’ve chosen your lender. You can’t transfer a rate lock between lenders.
The Middle Ground: Delayed Lock
Consider locking your rate 30-45 days before your closing date rather than immediately. This gives you time to see how rates trend while still protecting you during the final stretch before closing.
Bottom Line on Timing
According to mortgage experts, trying to time the absolute bottom of the rate market is nearly impossible. Ted Rossman of Bankrate notes, “Focus less on timing the lowest rate and more on finding the right home at the right price with a payment you can comfortably afford—even at the top of the 6.4% projected range.”
If current rates work for your budget, lock them in. You can always refinance later if rates drop significantly (0.75-1% or more).
How to Qualify for the Best Mortgage Rates
The rates published by Freddie Mac and Zillow are averages. Your actual rate depends on factors within your control. Here’s how to position yourself for the lowest possible rate:
1. Boost Your Credit Score to 760+
Credit score impact on rates is dramatic:
760-850: Best rates (what’s advertised)
700-759: Rates about 0.25-0.5% higher
660-699: Rates about 0.5-0.75% higher
620-659: Rates about 0.75-1.5% higher
Below 620: May not qualify for conventional loans
On a $400,000 loan, the difference between a 6.0% rate (760+ score) and 7.0% rate (660 score) is $263 per month and $94,680 over 30 years.
How to Improve Your Credit Score Quickly
Pay down credit card balances below 30% utilization (10% is ideal). Don’t close old credit cards – length of credit history matters. Dispute any errors on your credit report with all three bureaus. Avoid opening new credit accounts in the 6 months before applying. Consider becoming an authorized user on someone’s established card.
2. Make a Larger Down Payment
Down payment directly affects your rate:
20%+ down: Best rates, no PMI required
15-19% down: Slightly higher rates, PMI required
10-14% down: Moderately higher rates, higher PMI
5-9% down: Higher rates, highest PMI
3-3.5% down: Highest conventional rates, or FHA rates with MIP
Every 5% you add to your down payment typically saves 0.125-0.25% on your interest rate. If you’re at 15% down, consider whether you can scrape together another 5% to hit the 20% threshold and eliminate PMI entirely.
3. Lower Your Debt-to-Income Ratio
Lenders calculate DTI by dividing your monthly debt payments by your gross monthly income. They look at two ratios:
Front-end DTI: Housing payment ÷ gross income (should be under 28%)
Back-end DTI: All debt payments ÷ gross income (should be under 43%)
Borrowers with DTI below 36% typically qualify for better rates than those at 43%. Consider paying off or paying down car loans, student loans, or credit card debt before applying.
4. Choose the Right Loan Type and Term
Your loan choice affects your rate:
15-year mortgages have lower rates than 30-year (typically 0.5-0.75% lower). Conventional loans often have better rates than FHA (if you have good credit). VA loans offer excellent rates for eligible borrowers. Adjustable-rate mortgages have lower initial rates than fixed.
5. Shop Multiple Lenders
This is the easiest way to save thousands without changing anything about your financial profile. Get quotes from at least five lenders including: Your current bank or credit union (relationship discounts possible), two online lenders (lower overhead = lower rates), two traditional mortgage companies, one mortgage broker (can shop multiple lenders for you).
Make sure all quotes are for the same loan amount, down payment, and lock period so you’re comparing apples to apples. Focus on the APR, not just the interest rate, as APR includes fees.
6. Buy Discount Points (Sometimes)
Discount points are upfront fees you pay to permanently lower your rate. One point typically costs 1% of your loan amount and lowers your rate by 0.25%.
When points make sense: You’re staying in the home 7+ years (time to recoup the upfront cost), you have cash available that isn’t needed for other investments, you want the lowest possible monthly payment.
When to skip points: You might refinance within 5 years, you’d rather keep cash for home improvements or emergencies, rates are expected to drop significantly (you’ll refinance anyway).
7. Time Your Application
Apply when you have the strongest financial profile:
After recent raises or bonuses (higher income helps DTI). After paying down debt. When your credit score is at its peak. Before making any major purchases (new car, furniture) that would increase your debt. Before changing jobs if possible (lenders prefer 2 years employment history).
Frequently Asked Questions
As of January 8, 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.16% according to Freddie Mac. Purchase mortgage rates from Zillow show an average of 5.99%, while refinance rates average 6.75%. The 15-year fixed rate averages 5.46%. These are national averages – your actual rate will depend on your credit score, down payment, location, and the lender you choose. Borrowers with excellent credit and 20% down typically qualify for rates 0.25-0.5% below these averages.
Most experts predict mortgage rates will remain in the 6.0-6.5% range throughout early 2026, with potential to dip to 5.7-5.9% by late 2026 if the Federal Reserve continues cutting its benchmark rate and inflation continues cooling. Fannie Mae forecasts rates could reach 5.9% by year-end, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to stay in the 6.0-6.5% band. However, rates are unlikely to return to the 3% levels seen during the pandemic. The new normal is expected to be in the 5.5-6.5% range.
If you’re closing within 45 days and current rates fit your budget, lock your rate now to protect against any increases. If you’re 60+ days from closing, consider waiting to see how rates trend after the Fed’s January 28 meeting and upcoming inflation reports. The risk of waiting is that rates could increase if economic data shows stronger-than-expected inflation or growth. The potential reward is that rates could drop another 0.25-0.5% if inflation continues cooling. Most experts say that trying to time the absolute bottom is difficult, so if current rates work for you financially, lock them in.
Credit score dramatically affects your rate. On a $400,000 loan at current rates, a borrower with a 760+ credit score might qualify for 6.0%, while a borrower with a 660 score might pay 7.0% or higher. This 1% difference costs $263 per month and $94,680 over 30 years. Generally, you need a score of 740+ to qualify for advertised rates, 700-739 adds about 0.25-0.5%, 660-699 adds 0.5-0.75%, and scores below 660 add 1%+ or may not qualify for conventional loans at all.
Refinance rates are typically 0.5-0.75% higher than purchase rates because refinances involve more risk for lenders and higher processing costs. Currently, the average 30-year purchase rate is about 5.99% while the refinance rate is 6.75%. This spread varies by lender and market conditions. The reason for the gap includes lenders spending more time verifying property values on refinances, borrowers being more likely to default on refinanced debt versus purchase debt, and higher processing costs for loan modifications.
Yes, 6% is a historically reasonable mortgage rate. While it’s higher than the emergency pandemic-era rates of 2-3%, it’s well below the 30-year historical average of around 7.75%. It’s also significantly better than the 7-8% rates seen in 2023-2024. From a historical perspective, mortgage rates were 9-10% in the late 1990s and exceeded 18% in the early 1980s. Most economists view 5.5-6.5% as the “new normal” range for mortgage rates given current economic conditions.
Mortgage rates can change daily or even multiple times per day based on financial market movements. Lenders typically update their rate sheets each morning based on overnight trading in the bond markets, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield. Rates can shift during the day in response to economic data releases, Fed announcements, or major news events. This is why lenders offer rate locks – to protect borrowers from daily fluctuations during the application and closing process. On average, rates tend to move in a range of 0.05-0.25% per week unless there’s a major economic announcement.
You need a credit score of 760 or higher to qualify for the best mortgage rates in 2026. Lenders typically offer their lowest rates to borrowers in the 760-850 range. If your score is 740-759, you’ll still get competitive rates, usually just 0.125-0.25% higher. Scores of 700-739 might add 0.25-0.5% to your rate, and scores below 700 will face significantly higher rates or may not qualify for conventional loans. The minimum score for a conventional loan is typically 620, but you’ll pay much higher rates below 700. FHA loans accept scores as low as 580, though you’ll pay mortgage insurance.
Choose a 15-year mortgage if you can afford payments about 40-50% higher than a 30-year and want to build equity faster while saving massively on interest. On a $400,000 loan, a 15-year at 5.46% costs $3,245/month but saves $260,000 in interest versus a 30-year at 6.16% costing $2,433/month. Choose a 30-year if you need lower monthly payments for flexibility, plan to invest the payment difference elsewhere, or want to maximize your buying power. Many homeowners choose the 30-year for flexibility and make extra principal payments when possible, giving them the best of both worlds.
Compare quotes from at least five lenders to ensure you’re getting competitive rates and fees. Research from Freddie Mac shows that borrowers who get five quotes save an average of $3,000 over the life of their loan compared to those who only get one quote. Include a mix of lender types including your current bank or credit union, two online lenders, two traditional mortgage companies, and consider using a mortgage broker who can shop multiple lenders for you. Make sure all quotes are for the same loan amount, term, and down payment so you can compare apples to apples. Focus on the APR rather than just the interest rate since APR includes fees.
Yes, mortgage rates are negotiable, especially if you have competing offers from other lenders. Lenders have some flexibility in the rates and fees they charge. Show your current lender a better offer you received elsewhere and ask them to match or beat it. You can also negotiate lender fees like origination charges, processing fees, and underwriting fees even if you can’t negotiate the base interest rate. Lenders are often willing to reduce fees or buy down your rate slightly to win your business, particularly if you have excellent credit and a large down payment. Having multiple quotes is your best negotiating leverage.
It’s possible but not guaranteed. Ted Rossman of Bankrate predicts rates could go as low as 5.5% in 2026 if the Fed continues cutting rates and the economy slows. Fannie Mae forecasts rates around 5.9% by late 2026. However, this requires continued progress on inflation, a softening labor market, and Fed cooperation with additional rate cuts. Current market pricing suggests only a 18% chance of a Fed rate cut at the January meeting, indicating cautious optimism rather than certainty. Most forecasters expect rates to bounce around 6% throughout much of 2026 rather than dropping dramatically below it.
Rates update weekly. This article was last updated January 9, 2026. Check back every Monday for the latest mortgage rate data and market analysis.
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